Traders are on alert for a rising risk of Japan intervening to support the yen, with a US jobs report later Friday looming as a potential catalyst for sharp moves in the currency.
The yen is within reach of the 160 per dollar level, a breach of which would increase concern among policymakers in Tokyo about the weak currency’s impact on business and consumers. Strategists see a possible run toward this psychological level — if the jobs figures are strong. This in turn would bring the multi-decade weak point of 161.95 into sight.
The yen depreciated as far as 158.55 to a dollar on Wednesday, a level last seen in July, when Japan most recently waded into the currency market. It was trading 0.1% lower on the day at 158.36 as of 3:30 p.m. in Tokyo. Japanese markets are shut on Monday for a holiday, which may put further pressure on the yen, as data show the currency has recently weakened more outside Tokyo trading hours.
“Intervention is possible if the pair gets close to 160 after the jobs data, but there will likely be some verbal warnings first,” said Tsutomu Soma, a bond and currency trader at Monex Inc. in Tokyo. “The market will have no choice but to buy dollars if the jobs data is strong.”
Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato said on Tuesday that authorities would take appropriate action against excessive moves. Japan stepped into the currency market four times in 2024, spending almost $100 billion.
The yen has declined against the dollar for four straight years amid a wide gap between interest rates in Japan and the US. With officials at the Federal Reserve signaling a slowdown in the pace of US rate cuts, and the timing of another hike by the Bank of Japan uncertain, the yen is vulnerable to selling.
Minutes from the Fed’s December policy meeting showed that officials were eager to slow the pace of rate reductions, and BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda delivered cautious messaging on rates last month after the policy board held borrowing costs unchanged.
Complicating matters for currency traders, Japan showed last year that it could intervene to amplify moments of yen strength, not just to arrest sharp selloffs. And while traders speculate about lines in the sand for intervention, officials have indicated they are just as concerned by volatility and the pace of moves as they are about specific levels.
