Activity in the U.S. oil and gas sector increased slightly in the first quarter of 2025, but uncertainty and pessimism among companies also rose, a Dallas Fed survey showed on Wednesday.
U.S. President Donald Trump has promised to unleash U.S. energy dominance, declaring a national energy emergency on his first day in office. Yet many in the sector were worried that Trump’s trade and tariff policies could slow the economy and dent energy demand.
The company outlook index decreased 12 points to -4.9, suggesting slight pessimism among firms, the Dallas Fed survey said. The uncertainty index was up by 21 points to 43.1.
The survey, conducted in mid-March, included 88 exploration and production companies and 42 oilfield firms operating in the largest U.S. oil-producing region that includes Texas, southern New Mexico and northern Louisiana.
Costs among oilfield service firms rose faster in the first quarter of 2025 than in the fourth quarter of 2024, the survey showed. Even so, production kept climbing.
Companies expect a West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price of $68 per barrel by the end of 2025, rising to $74 per barrel in 2027 and $82 per barrel by 2030. U.S. crude futures are currently trading at around $70 a barrel.
Oil and gas companies expect natural gas prices to be $3.78 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) at the end of the year, rising to $4.30 per MMBtu in 2027 and $4.83 per MMBtu in five years.
