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Toyota upgraded to Buy at Citi as market share continues to grow

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Citi upgraded Toyota (TYO:7203) to a Buy rating (From Neutral) and raised the company’s 12-month price target of the stock to ¥2,800 (From ¥2,100) as the Japanese carmaker continues to grow its market share. Toyota’s market share rose 2ppt in the five years through FY3/22. Over that time, BEVs have spread to come to account for 10% of the market.

Citi analysts wrote in a note, “We like the way Toyota is growing market share (and hence earnings) via its competitiveness in HEVs and the way it has turned more proactive on future tech disclosure (rising multiples and stability). We are also optimistic that Q1 results will come in ahead of market expectations and open an upside Catalyst Watch. We also add Toyota to the Pan-Asia Focus List.”

Toyota held a technical workshop on June 13th, where it unveiled 30 new technologies, including tech not possessed by other firms, like BEV batteries with bipolar structures and the concept of an assembly line that runs itself, with the vehicles moving themselves.

Citi raised FY3/24 OP forecasts to ¥4.2trn and FY3/25 OP forecast to ¥4.3trn. Citi also sees room for upside to the firm’s production plans. In FY3/25, they anticipate higher sales incentives as supply and demand ease and increases in upfront development expenses but also continued earnings growth on higher market share driven by HEVs.

Shares of TM are up 0.07% in pre-market trading on Thursday.

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