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Analysis Featured News Technology

The stock market’s fate all depends on tariffs

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With the S&P 500 (^GSPC) on the brink of a 10% correction, stocks attempted a rebound on Wednesday following a better-than-expected inflation reading.

As with most of the recent market action, the rally proved to be stop-and-go as news that Canada would slap retaliatory tariffs on the US sent the major indexes into negative territory before an eventual rebound throughout the afternoon.

The whipsaw nature of stocks as of late fits what many investors have been saying about the recent drawdown: Until there’s clarity on tariff policy, the chaotic market action likely won’t end.

Guggenheim Partners Investment Management CIO Anne Walsh said on Wednesday that the “the on, then off, then on and then off again narrative” surrounding tariffs is driving volatility in the market. And as long as that persists, there likely isn’t a direct path higher for stocks.

“It doesn’t feel like a smooth trajectory [for stocks] because of all of the noise,” Walsh said.

Piper Sandler chief investment strategist Michael Kantrowitz recently offered similar sentiment, writing in a note to clients: “[We’re] unlikely to see a material recovery in equities until we see the start of fiscal policy uncertainty abating,” noting that a recent surge in fiscal policy uncertainty, as measured by an index tracked on Bloomberg and seen below, has coincided with the market’s recent slide.

 

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