Tesla will likely report thinner profit margins in its quarterly and full-year results Wednesday, a result of its first drop in annual sales in its history last year and a price war in the EV sector from increased competition. But the company’s large swaths of investors seem more focused on CEO Elon Musk’s bromance with President Donald Trump than the troubling noises coming from the car company behind Musk’s fortune.
Shares of Tesla are up 57% since the close of trading on Election Day — even with some of the company’s troubles, which include a change in federal emission regulations that could reduce the billions of dollars it gets from the sale of regulatory credits, and increased competition for electric car buyers. Tesla also nearly lost its title as the world’s largest maker of EVs to Chinese automaker BYD at the end of last year, even though BYD has yet to enter the US market. But with the growing sales of EVs in China, Tesla seems likely to lose that title this year, especially if its sales continue to decline.
But Musk’s close connection to Trump has investors hoping that the new administration will clear the way for some of his grand plans, including approval of true self-driving cars that don’t have accelerator or brake pedals or steering wheels, which Musk has promised for years. Aside from regulations, however, Tesla’s technology — including “Full Self Driving,” or FSD — has not lived up to Musk’s claims and promises in the past, and has faced investigations into its safety by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. The current version of FSD requires a person to be in the driver’s seat, ready to take control of the car should a problem arise.
Musk insists, however, that truly driverless “Cybercab” robotaxis from Tesla will be available by 2026 and that its service will make the company by far the most valuable in the world. While even Musk admits “I tend to be a little optimistic with time frames,” he also said that only regulatory hurdles are keeping keep his next generation of self-driving robotaxis from being a reality soon. There are analysts who agree with his view.
“I think the Trump tailwind is just starting for Musk and Tesla, and the value of autonomous vehicles and FSD is going to be unleashed,” said Dan Ives, analyst with Wedbush Securities and a Tesla bull. “In our view Tesla continues to be the most undervalued AI play in the market.”
‘A demand problem’
But there are still Tesla bears who don’t believe that autonomous driving is as close as Musk promises. They also say that the softening growth in the American electric vehicle market is a major problem for the company. Shares of Tesla have lost 17% of their value since their peak a month ago, despite still being far above the pre-election price.