Stocks struggled for direction as a watchful tone spread across global markets before the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate decision.
Traders are split over whether the US central bank will cut rates by 25 or 50 basis points later Wednesday, with market-implied odds on the bigger move currently at 50%. The Fed will also release new quarterly projections, and Chair Jerome Powell will hold a press conference.
“If they’re doing 25 basis points this time, the likelihood that they can get to a hundred basis points by year end is pretty slim,” said Justin Onuekwusi, chief investment officer at St James Place Management. “So if you don’t get 50, then you’re going to get significant moves in market pricing.”
S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 contracts gave up modest gains, while technology stocks led Europe’s Stoxx 600 index lower. In corporate news, Aperol maker Davide Campari NV’s shares fell 6.7% as its chief executive officer resigned after just five months.
The Japanese yen climbed as much as 0.8%, signaling expectations of a narrowing divergence in policy between the Fed and the Bank of Japan, which decides on rates on Friday. The dollar weakened slightly and Treasury yields ticked higher.
In the UK, money markets see the Bank of England delivering modestly less easing after services inflation rose to 5.6% in August from 5.2% in July, while the headline figure held at just above the 2% target. The pound strengthened after Wednesday’s data.
Economists largely anticipate the Federal Open Market Committee will reduce rates by a quarter point to a range of 5% to 5.25%, though a number expect a half-point move. Investors see even odds of a half-point adjustment.
Fresh quarterly projections in the form of the so-called “dot plot” released at the end of the central bank’s two-day meeting will offer further insight into the path ahead for borrowing costs and the economy.
St James’ Onuekwusi said the economy is in decent shape, recession risks have been largely priced out and unemployment is low. “Take all that together and we are relatively positive on the world and this decision won’t really change expected returns from asset classes overall.”
In Asia, a gauge of regional stocks edged lower. Chinese equities listed on mainland markets were modestly higher after a holiday break, shrugging off the gains in Hong Kong amid calls for major economic stimulus.
