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Stocks near record highs as investors await Fed minutes, manufacturing update: What to know this week

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The S&P 500 (^GSPC) chugged to a record high last week as new inflation data signaled good news about the Federal Reserve’s rate cut plans.

For the week, the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) rose more than 2.5%, while the S&P 500 added just under 1.5%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) added about 0.5%.

The week ahead will bring a quieter flow of economic news. Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s January meeting will be in focus for investors, alongside updates on activity in the manufacturing and services sector, and on consumer sentiment.

Corporate earnings season rolls on, headlined by quarterly reports from Alibaba (BABA) and Walmart (WMT). Overall, 46 S&P 500 companies are expected to release results during the holiday-shortened trading week.

Markets will be closed on Monday for Presidents’ Day.

Last week, two fresh inflation readings for the month of January showed prices increased more than Wall Street had expected, but economists found positive news for markets and the Federal Reserve within the details.

Key categories in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) feed into the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumptions Expenditures (PCE) index. When evaluating those categories, it appears that price increases likely slowed in the month of January.

Economists now expect “core” PCE, which excludes the volatile categories of food and energy, will likely clock in at 2.6% in January, down from the 2.8% seen in December.

This leaves markets pricing in one or two interest rate cuts from the Fed in 2025, little changed from the week prior. And importantly, many economists still think the Fed is closer to cutting interest rates rather than hiking them.

“We think the bar for Fed hikes remains high,” Morgan Stanley chief US economist Michael Gapen wrote in a note to clients on Friday. “The evolution of inflation expectations and second-round effects from tariffs on services inflation remain key points of emphasis. But, for now, we still think the distribution of Fed policy outcomes skews in the direction of rate cuts as opposed to hikes.”

Investors will look to minutes from the Fed’s January meeting, due out for release on Wednesday at 2 p.m. ET, for clues to its thinking about the path forward for interest rates.

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