OPEC+ agreed to push back its December production increase by one month, the second delay to its plans to revive supply as prices continue to struggle amid a fragile economic outlook.
The group led by Saudi Arabia and Russia had intended to begin a series of monthly production increases by adding 180,000 barrels a day from December, but they will now keep supply restrained through that month, according to a statement posted on OPEC’s website on Sunday.
They had already postponed the restart from October as faltering demand in China and swelling supplies from the Americas pressure prices. Brent futures have slumped 17% in the past four months to trade near $73 a barrel, too low for the Saudis and many others in OPEC+ to cover government spending.
“Market conditions won out,” said Harry Tchilinguirian, head of oil research at Onyx Commodities Ltd. “OPEC+ showed it couldn’t ignore the current macroeconomic economic realities centered on China and Europe, which point to weaker oil demand growth.”
Further delay may do little to bolster the market, having been anticipated by many traders. Global markets still face a glut next year even if the OPEC+ alliance refrains from increasing supplies, the International Energy Agency in Paris estimates. Citigroup Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. see prices slipping into the $60s in 2025.
The OPEC+ move is “modestly positive,” said Giovanni Staunovo, an analyst at UBS Group AG in Zurich. The market will focus instead on Iran’s response to Israel’s attacks and the outcome of US elections, he said.
Crude markets have largely shrugged off a year of conflict in the Middle East, including Israel’s recent retaliatory strike against Iran, as traders grow increasingly confident that oil shipments from the region will remain unaffected.
That poses a financial threat for Riyadh, which needs price levels closer to $100 a barrel to cover the ambitious economic plans of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, according to the International Monetary Fund. The kingdom’s oil-market partner, Russian President Vladimir Putin, also needs fund for his war against Ukraine.
“For me, the impact is more important on sentiment than the numbers,” said Amrita Sen, director of research at consultant Energy Aspects Ltd. “The market has been incorrectly viewing OPEC+ as wanting to flood the market to regain market share,” but instead, their “primary focus remains keeping oil inventories under control.”
