For the first time in two decades, China no longer looks like the engine driving global crude demand, which is uncharted waters for many of the traders and executives that gathered for the APPEC oil conference in Singapore this week.

China’s economic slowdown is dire, with its property market in the doldrums and consumer confidence weak. Add to that structural changes from an aging population, the energy transition and a growth model that leans less heavily on big-ticket infrastructure, and it’s bad news for oil.

For crude merchants and analysts, that means a big adjustment.

“I’ve had the discussion internally with my traders. I asked them one question — how long have you been trading? They’ll say 10 years,” said Janet Kong, the chief executive officer of Hengli Petrochemical International Pte., a trading arm of one of China’s largest private refiners. “My reply is, you haven’t really traded a world where China is not a bullish factor.”

China’s evolution into the world’s biggest oil importer has supported crude prices for decades and provided business opportunities for merchants from Shanghai to Dubai and London. A tolerance for low-digit GDP growth — perhaps even missing this year’s 5% target — makes that difficult to sustain.

The poll showed that a 200,000 barrel-a-day expansion is expected for this year.

Respondents, who asked for anonymity as their views are not public, cited higher penetration of electric vehicles, the steady uptake of liquefied natural gas-powered trucks and government restrictions on crude imports and fuel exports. There’s also little spare storage capacity for Beijing to expand its strategic oil reserves.

‘Half Life’

“From a structural perspective, China now looks unlikely to be the behemoth for oil demand and perhaps even for other commodities that it once was,” Energy Aspects Ltd. analysts including Amrita Sen and Livia Gallarati said in a note earlier this week, “We remain confident that the government will not allow economic growth to collapse, but growth will no doubt be lackluster for the foreseeable future.”