Oil steadied above a four-year low as traders weighed the latest US moves in the trade war, as well as “constructive” talks between Washington and Tehran.
Brent traded below $65 a barrel following back-to-back weekly losses while West Texas Intermediate was near $62. While President Donald Trump paused import duties on some electronics, he also indicated that a specific tariff will be announced in due course.
Easing tensions with Iran, meanwhile, may offer prospects for improved supply. Weekend talks in Oman marked the first top-level engagement since 2022, and signaled a renewed effort to resolve a years-long standoff over Tehran’s nuclear program. Both sides agreed to meet again.
Crude has been driven sharply lower in April as the trade war — especially the confrontation between the US and China — stoked fears of a global recession that would hurt energy demand. A surprise OPEC+ decision to bring back shuttered output more quickly than expected has added to the bearishness.
The volatile trading has reanimated concerns global oil supply will run ahead of demand this year. Traders will parse a monthly outlook due from OPEC later Monday for clues about underlying conditions. The International Energy Agency will weigh in on Tuesday, including a first snapshot of 2026.
“While the market has already priced in some future inventory builds, we expect large surpluses,” Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analysts including Daan Struyven said in an note, estimating a glut of 800,000 barrels a day this year. Brent is expected to average $63 over the rest of 2025, they said.
Oil’s losses this month have formed part of an intense global market reaction to the evolving trade war, with most commodities and equities selling off. There have also been unusual declines in the US dollar and Treasuries, assets that usually function as havens during periods of stress.
“I see limited upside for crude,” said Vandana Hari, founder of Vanda Insights in Singapore, after oil futures ticked higher in last week’s final session. “Will crude sustain Friday’s upward momentum or stall again, that’s the question? It depends entirely on what tone Trump sets on the tariffs front.”
