Oil held steady after tumbling the most in more than two years on Monday as the wipeout of crude’s geopolitical risk premium shifted traders’ focus back to potential stimulus in China and global supply expectations.
West Texas Intermediate was little changed around $67.50 a barrel after earlier climbing as much as 1.7% on reports that China is weighing more than 10 trillion yuan ($1.4 trillion) in fiscal stimulus. Brent hovered around $71.50 a barrel.
“The selloff yesterday was overdone, so we’re seeing a corrective phase back to equilibrium,” said Dennis Kissler, senior vice president for trading at BOK Financial Securities. “The stimulus from China is also a helping factor.”
Crude’s long-standing war premium further unwound after Israel signaled it was open to a short truce in Gaza in exchange for the release of a small number of hostages — putting weak fundamentals back into the spotlight. The market is heading into a crucial period, with a tight US presidential election looming and OPEC+ planning to start unwinding voluntary production cuts from December.
In a sign that war risk is fading, the premium of bullish oil call options over the opposite puts has narrowed sharply. A gauge of implied volatility for Brent also fell to the lowest in almost a month on Monday, and a swath of contracts expired worthless as prices cooled.
Away from the conflict, the US Energy Department said Monday it would seek to add 3 million barrels of oil to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
Also see: Oil Traders Split on Whether OPEC+ Will Hike Supply in December
A slew of economic data from the US this week, including on growth and employment, may give clues on the Federal Reserve’s rate-cut path.