Oil prices edged down on Monday in thin holiday trade ahead of the year-end as traders awaited more Chinese and U.S. economic data later this week to assess growth in the world’s two largest oil consumers.
Brent crude (BZ=F, BZT=F) futures eased 8 cents to $74.09 a barrel by 0700 GMT while the more active March contract was at $73.73 a barrel, down 6 cents.
Both contracts rose about 1.4% last week buoyed by a larger-than-expected drawdown from U.S. crude inventories in the week ended Dec. 20 as refiners ramped up activity and the holiday season boosted fuel demand. [EIA/S]
Oil prices were also supported by optimism for Chinese economic growth next year that could lift demand from the top crude oil importing nation.
To revive growth, Chinese authorities have agreed to issue a record 3 trillion yuan ($411 billion) in special treasury bonds in 2025.
“Global oil consumption reached an all-time high in 2024 despite China underperforming expectations, and oil stockpiles are heading into next year at relatively low levels,” said Ryan Fitzmaurice, senior commodity strategist at Marex.
“Going forward, China economic data is expected to improve as the recent stimulus measures take hold in 2025. Also, lower rates in the U.S. and elsewhere should be supportive of oil consumption.”
China has also issued at least 152.49 million metric tons of crude oil import quotas to independent refiners in a second batch for 2025 so far, trade sources said on Monday.
Separately, the World Bank has raised its forecast for China’s economic growth in 2024 and 2025, but warned that subdued household and business confidence, along with headwinds in the property sector, would remain a drag next year.
Investors are eyeing China’s PMI factory surveys due on Tuesday and the U.S. ISM survey for December to be released on Friday.
In Europe, hopes for a new deal to transit Russian gas through Ukraine are fading after Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Thursday that there was no time left this year to sign a new deal.
The loss of piped Russian gas should see Europe import more liquefied natural gas (LNG), analysts said.
