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Oil Recovers as Traders Assess Trump Tariffs, Russia Sanctions

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Oil rose after President Donald Trump threatened tariffs on China and the European Union, while traders continued to assess the fallout from unprecedented US sanctions on Russia.

Brent crept above $79 a barrel following a run of declines in recent sessions. European equities set a fresh record Wednesday, while the dollar fell, aiding commodities priced in the currency.

Trump said he was considering a 10% tariff on China and the EU, two of the world’s largest energy markets. Meanwhile, Canada has started sending a flood of crude to the US to beat potential levies after the president pledged measures against America’s northern neighbor.

Canadian crude producers are trying to “push as much volume out of the market as possible” before the tariffs, according to Rystad Energy. Levies, which Trump said could start from Feb. 1, would result in higher gasoline costs for American consumers, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. warned last year.

Oil traders are also still reeling from the most comprehensive set of sanctions on Russian oil to date. State-owned refiner Indian Oil Corp. said it sees a supply hit of up to 2 million barrels a day from the measures. The value of Dubai crude has soared relative to other benchmarks as traders scrambled for alternative supplies.

“The oil market at present seems more sensitive to trade restriction threats,” said John Evans, an analyst at brokerage PVM. “Russia and weather considerations are not done with oil, they just do not at present outweigh the uncertainty revolving around tariffs.”

Crude still remains higher so far this year, helped by the broad US sanctions on Russia and cold weather in the northern hemisphere. A historic winter storm was dropping bitter cold from Texas to North Carolina Wednesday, upending regional energy markets.

On Russia, Trump said he’s likely to impose more penalties on Moscow if President Vladimir Putin doesn’t come to the table to negotiate on Ukraine.

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