Oil held steady as signs of tighter near-term supply-and-demand balances were undercut by an intensifying global trade war that threatens to crimp global energy consumption.
West Texas Intermediate edged down below $70 a barrel, following a roughly 5% rally in the past three weeks. Crude was largely tracking equities, which slipped after President Donald Trump pushed ahead with tariffs on automakers and threatened harsher punishment on the European Union and Canada if they join forces against the US.
“The markets seem wholly preoccupied with trade war tensions, leaving little room for other narratives,” said Fawad Razaqzada, a market analyst at City Index and Forex.com. “Much now hinges on Trump’s rhetoric — should he soften his tone, markets might find some relief. If not, the risk of prolonged volatility looms large.”
Oil has trended higher since early March as sanctions and tariffs from the Trump administration raise the potential for supply disruption from producers including Iran and Venezuela. A US government report on Wednesday which showed the country’s stockpiles shrank by 3.34 million barrels last week, dropping to the lowest in a month, helped to allay fears of near-term demand deterioration.
Major oil traders including Trafigura Group and Gunvor Group are bearish on crude prices over the rest of the year due to rising supply, particularly from outside OPEC+. The producer group is also scheduled to start reviving idled output next month, the first in a series of planned hikes.