Oil steadied near the lowest this year as US President Donald Trump’s geopolitical positions and threats of tariffs on energy weighed on the outlook.
Brent crude traded below $75 after falling 2.1% on Wednesday to cancel out all year-to-date gains, while West Texas Intermediate was near $71. China is set to impose retaliatory tariffs on the US from Monday, igniting a trade war that could hurt global growth, while the American leader’s proposal to take over Gaza was widely condemned.
Investors have pulled out of crude and fuel markets since Trump’s inauguration, causing prices to slide, although concerns remain over further restrictions on supply from Iran and Russia, as well as over delayed sanctions on crude from Canada and Mexico. Some Middle Eastern oil grades have strengthened as a result, with Saudi Arabia hiking the price of its flagship variety to Asia by the most in more than two years.
In the US, nationwide commercial crude stockpiles rose by the most in almost a year, partly thanks to an increase in imports from Canada before the initial levies were set to come into force. Levels typically start to build around this time of the year, although they remain below seasonal averages.
“The ongoing trade dispute between the US and China continues to inject uncertainty into the global oil market,” said Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst for brokerage Phillip Nova Pte in Singapore. The build in US inventories, meanwhile, may “suggest a potential oversupply in the domestic market, which could exert downward pressure on prices.”
There are signs that the physical market is softening. The spread between Brent’s two closest contracts shrank to near the least this year, with the bullish backwardation structure narrowing to 52 cents a barrel, compared with around $1 at the end of last month. For WTI, an options bet was placed for the curve to flip into a bearish contango pattern next year.
