Goldman Sachs Group Inc. ramped up its gold price forecast to $3,300 an ounce by year-end, citing stronger-than-expected central bank demand and solid inflows into bullion-backed exchange traded funds.
The bank’s increasingly bullish view on the precious metal was shown by the new forecast from analysts Lina Thomas and Daan Struyven, who just last month upgraded their end-2025 price target to $3,100 an ounce. Official sector appetite could average about 70 tons a month this year — up from their previous estimate of 50 tons, they said in a note on Thursday.
The precious metal has rallied 15% so far this year, extending strong gains last year that were partly fueled by the Federal Reserve’s pivot to monetary easing. Prices this month breached the key psychological threshold of $3,000 an ounce for the first time, with investors seeking refuge in the haven asset as President Donald Trump’s disruptive agendas on foreign policy and trade cloud the outlook for the global economy.
The new $3,300 an ounce forecast reflects a pick up in purchases through the November through to January period — with central banks scooping up about 190 tons per month, the Goldman analysts said. There are also expectations that China may continue accumulating at “a rapid pace” for at least three years, they added.
“Central banks — particularly in emerging markets — have increased gold purchases roughly fivefold since 2022, following the freezing of Russian reserves,” Thomas and Struyven wrote. “We view this as a structural shift in reserve management behavior, and we do not expect a near-term reversal.”
Inflows into gold-backed ETFs had “surprised to the upside,” with renewed investor demand for hedges likely driving the expansion, the analysts said. They reiterated their view for two rate cuts from the Fed this year.
“While ETF flows generally track Fed policy rates, history shows they can overshoot during extended periods of macro uncertainty — such as during the Covid-19 pandemic,” they said. Should accelerating demand for hedging boosts ETF holdings toward the pandemic-level heights seen in 2020, prices may hit $3,680 an ounce by year’s end, the analysts added.
