(Reuters) – The dollar began the week under pressure on Monday, with traders betting it might have peaked along with U.S. interest rates while keeping a wary eye on looming inflation and loans data.
Sterling, up a fraction on the day and hovering at an 11-month high of $1.2652, was in particular focus ahead of an expected Bank of England rate increase on Thursday.
The pound has also been firming versus the euro, which was last at 87.36 pence, having dipped to 87.11 pence on Friday, its softest against the British currency this year.
Against the dollar, however, the euro has rallied nearly 16% from September lows, and was up 0.25% to $1.1047, supported by expectations the European Central Bank will keep interest rates high for longer than the U.S. Federal Reserve.
Last week the Fed raised rates by 25 basis points but sounded slightly more cautious than peers on the outlook, dropping guidance about the need for future hikes.
U.S. interest rate futures are pricing about a one-third chance of a rate cut as soon as July, according to the CME FedWatch tool – even though stronger-than-forecast U.S. jobs data released on Friday suggests that might be premature.
The ECB last week also slowed the pace of its interest rate increases but signalled more tightening to come.
“Interest rate differentials between the Eurozone and US continue to narrow, removing a headwind for (the euro vs the dollar),” said Carol Kong, currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia (OTC:CMWAY).
“We expect EUR/USD to remain supported while financial markets continue to price interest rate cuts for the US this year and further interest rate hikes from the ECB.”
The dollar index, which tracks the unit against six major peers, was down 0.2% at 101.11. Last month’s, 100.78 was its lowest in a year.
Later Monday, the Fed’s loan officer survey might show whether and how hard banks are tightening up on credit after three U.S. lenders failed over recent weeks – which could weigh on the dollar if it puts downward pressure on interest rates.
Traders will also be watching headlines from Capitol Hill as lawmakers attempt to negotiate an impasse over the looming U.S. debt ceiling, with the Treasury Secretary warning the government might be unable to pay debts by June 1.
U.S. inflation data is due on Wednesday.
Elsewhere, the dollar was 0.1% stronger against the yen at 135.0, though it dipped 0.46% on the Swiss franc the other traditional safe haven to 0.8874.
The Australian dollar hit a three-week high and rose 0.5% to $0.6784.
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Currency bid prices at 0823 GMT
Description RIC Last U.S. Close Pct Change YTD Pct High Bid Low Bid
Previous Change
Session
Euro/Dollar
$1.1048 $1.1019 +0.27% +3.11% +1.1053 +1.1016
Dollar/Yen
135.0050 134.7900 +0.18% +2.89% +135.2850 +134.7100
Euro/Yen
149.14 148.57 +0.38% +6.30% +149.2700 +148.6400
Dollar/Swiss
0.8874 0.8905 -0.35% -4.03% +0.8912 +0.8869
Sterling/Dollar
1.2640 1.2631 +0.08% +4.52% +1.2657 +1.2627
Dollar/Canadian
1.3360 1.3374 -0.12% -1.41% +1.3387 +1.3349
Aussie/Dollar
0.6781 0.6750 +0.49% -0.49% +0.6789 +0.6740
NZ
Dollar/Dollar 0.6322 0.6293 +0.48% -0.41% +0.6330 +0.6294
All spots
Tokyo spots
Europe spots
Volatilities
Tokyo Forex market info from BOJ
