The dollar held near a seven-week high against the euro on Thursday, reached after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell pushed back on the idea of a U.S. interest rate cut as soon as March.
The yen, however, held on to overnight gains amid a decline in Treasury yields, as troubles at regional U.S. lender New York Community Bancorp sparked a rush to safer assets.
Sterling held largely steady ahead of a Bank of England policy decision later in the day, with investors seeking hints on when UK rates will fall. The U.S. dollar index – which measures the currency against a basket of six major peers including the euro, yen and British pound – was flat at 103.60 in the Asian afternoon, following Wednesday’s 0.19% advance.
It remains close to the recent high of 103.82 touched on Monday of this week and Tuesday of last week, and previously not seen since Dec. 13. The dollar has been buoyed by U.S. economic data suggesting the Fed can wait longer before cutting interest rates. Powell gave the currency another push overnight by calling a cut in March “not the base case.”
“I don’t think it’s likely the committee will reach a level of confidence by the time of the March meeting” to ease policy, “but that’s to be seen,” Powell said at a news conference after Fed officials left rates unchanged but dropped a longstanding reference to possible further hikes in borrowing costs.
“The Fed’s silence on the timing of their first cuts keeps markets on edge (and) the dollar likely benefits from this delay,” said James Kniveton, senior corporate forex dealer at Convera.
“However, the market’s anticipation of potential cuts later in the year could eventually chip away at the dollar’s resilience,” he added. “I would say there’s some fear in the market that the Fed are going to take too long to bring down rates, and that will mean they need to move to a lower terminal rate than initially thought.”
Traders are now pricing in a 38% probability the Fed will cut rates in March, down from 59% ahead of the Fed decision. It has fallen from 89% a month ago. However, the market is still positioned for close to 150 basis points of cuts over the course of this year. The euro eased 0.12% to $1.0805, edging back toward Wednesday’s low of $1.0795, its weakest since Dec. 13. Sterling lost 0.09% to $1.2676. The BoE is likely to keep rates unchanged, but markets have fully priced in a cut by June.
Against Japan’s currency, the dollar drifted 0.11% lower to 146.775 yen, adding to Wednesday’s 0.47% decline. The currency pair tends to track U.S. long-term yields, and the 10-year Treasury yield stood at about 3.94% on Thursday, down from Tuesday’s closing level of 4.057%, despite Powell’s less dovish tone. “For 10-year yields, whether the Fed’s going in March or whether it’s going in May is much less relevant,” said Ray Attrill, head of FX strategy at National Australia Bank.
“May is looking like a pretty good bet given the amount of inflation news the Fed will have between now and then (and) the price action suggests that’s the market’s view as well.”
U.S. yields, which move inversely to bond prices, had dipped before the Fed decision, as shares of New York Community Bancorp plunged after it cut its dividend and posted a surprise loss.
Investors snapped up U.S. Treasuries amid concerns about the health of other regional lenders. “It was certainly striking that the biggest move in UST yields was hours before the FOMC rather than after,” said Sean Callow, a foreign-exchange strategist at Westpac.
However, “if markets regard the knee-jerk response to the regional bank news as an over-reaction, then the less dovish FOMC will be the key story in coming days, supporting the U.S. dollar,” he added.
