Market Snapshot – July 11, 2025

After touching a high of $63,800 in mid-June, Bitcoin has retreated nearly 8%, weighed down by political uncertainty and renewed fears of regulatory clampdowns depending on the election outcome.

Crypto Regulation Under Biden: SEC Crackdown Continues

President Joe Biden’s administration has taken a relatively cautious—some argue hostile—approach to crypto. Key actions under his term have included:

• Aggressive SEC enforcement targeting centralized exchanges like Binance.US and Coinbase

• Limited clarity on token classification, causing hesitation among institutional investors

• Tightening stablecoin legislation under the Treasury Department

In June, the Securities and Exchange Commission issued new guidance that could classify many proof-of-stake tokens as securities, rattling altcoin markets and dragging sentiment lower.

“Under Biden, regulatory risk remains the single largest overhang for crypto,” said Morgan Paine, policy analyst at Messari. “There’s growing concern that innovation is being stifled domestically.”

Trump’s Stance: Pro-Crypto Rhetoric, But Light on Details

Donald Trump has reversed course from his 2020 anti-Bitcoin posture and is now openly courting the crypto vote. In May, he made headlines by stating:

“We’re going to make the U.S. a crypto powerhouse—not let innovation run away to China.”

While short on specific proposals, Trump’s campaign has hinted at:

• Rolling back SEC enforcement actions

• Pushing for Bitcoin to be held in national reserves

• Welcoming Bitcoin mining operations back to U.S. soil

His approach has generated excitement among some retail investors and libertarian-leaning crypto funds, but institutional allocators remain wary due to policy unpredictability.

ETF Flows Suggest Institutions Are Hedging Politically

Since the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in early 2025, institutional exposure to BTC has exploded. But the recent sell-off in Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) and iShares Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) suggests that hedge funds are rotating out or reducing exposure ahead of the election.

ETF Flows – Past 30 Days:

• IBIT (BlackRock): -$223M outflows

• FBTC (Fidelity): -$109M outflows

• ARKB (ARK Invest): -$78M outflows

“Funds are trimming crypto allocations in line with rising political risk. Volatility spikes are expected,” said Diane Chou, ETF strategist at VanEck.

Volatility Metrics Surge as Traders Price Political Risk

Bitcoin’s 30-day implied volatility has risen to 69%, its highest since the Terra/Luna collapse in 2022. The Bitcoin Volatility Index (BVIN) jumped over 7% this week alone, indicating that traders are aggressively pricing in policy divergence between the two presidential contenders.

Options markets reflect a growing demand for downside protection:

• Put/call ratios rising on September and November BTC options

• Spike in open interest on $50,000 BTC puts

• Increased demand for “election hedges” via ETH volatility trades

Investor Sentiment Split Across Political Lines

According to a recent survey by Delphi Digital:

• 68% of crypto investors prefer Trump’s crypto stance

• 22% favor Biden’s more cautious approach

• 10% remain undecided but cite volatility as a concern

Younger investors (ages 18–34) show a strong pro-Bitcoin bias and are more likely to consider a candidate’s crypto policy in their voting decision.

What to Watch Heading Into November 2024

1. Policy Announcements from Both Campaigns
Investors should closely monitor platform updates—especially around crypto tax treatment, stablecoin regulation, and SEC/CFPB jurisdiction.

2. Congressional Outcomes
Control of Congress will significantly influence what kind of crypto legislation can pass, regardless of who wins the presidency.

3. Global Crypto Alignment
Countries like the UK, Singapore, and UAE are creating clear crypto frameworks. If U.S. policy remains murky, talent and capital may continue flowing abroad.

Trading Outlook: Election Cycle as a Catalyst

Many technical analysts now see the U.S. election cycle as the dominant macro catalyst for Bitcoin and other digital assets. Traders should prepare for extreme moves in both directions, particularly in Q4 2024.

Trade Ideas:

• Long BTC straddles or strangles to capture volatility spikes

• Rotate into Layer-1s with lower regulatory risk (e.g., Avalanche, Cardano)

• Hold cash reserves to buy into dips post-election

Conclusion

With the 2024 U.S. presidential election shaping up to be a high-stakes rematch between two ideologically opposed candidates, the crypto market is entering a phase of elevated risk and opportunity. As Biden and Trump lay out their competing visions for America’s digital asset future, Bitcoin investors must prepare for policy pivots that could redefine the entire ecosystem. Volatility is back—and it’s here to stay.