As Bitcoin (BTC) heads into its typically bullish fourth quarter, analysts at CryptoQuant say that while positive seasonality is in sight, increased demand will be required for the cryptocurrency to hit its ambitious $100,000 price target by year’s end.
While highlighting this fact in its weekly report dated October 2, CryptoQuant points to the impressive streak Bitcoin has enjoyed during halving years. Previous cycles in 2012, 2016, and 2020 had seen price increases of 9%, 59%, and 171% respectively. According to this firm, it is observed that Bitcoin’s performance in 2024 has closely followed the patterns seen in 2016 and 2020 through September.
Analysts emphasize that apparent demand for Bitcoin has stabilized but needs significant growth to support higher prices. Monthly fluctuations in demand between -23,000 and +69,000 BTC since July pale in comparison to April’s robust 496,000 BTC surge when prices approached $70,000.
Institutional interest through US-based Bitcoin ETFs could catalyze price growth. So far, the trend has flipped from net selling to net buying, with ETFs turning course from offloading 5,000 BTC to acquiring 7,000 BTC in late September. This is reflected by the $1.8 billion in net inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs that came from September 13 to 30.
CryptoQuant estimates that with such demand momentum, Bitcoin has a fair chance of targeting $85,000-$100,000 by the end of December. However, all eyes are on the effects regarding external factors, including tension in the Middle East and the monetary policy to be followed by the Federal Reserve after its sharp 50-basis-point rate cut in September.
