The U.S. dollar climbed higher in early European trade Monday after a healthy jobs report prompted traders to price in a continuation of the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance.
At 03:15 ET (07:15 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.2% higher at 104.200, near its highest level for almost three months.
The dollar has been boosted by the release of forecast-smashing U.S. jobs figures, prompting U.S. Treasury yields to soar as a robust labor market coupled with stronger-than-expected print on the Fed’s preferred inflation index earlier in May pointed to the U.S. central bank keeping interest rates higher for longer.
The Fed meets next week and expectations of another rate increase are rising, particularly given the growing hopes the U.S. economy is headed for a ‘soft landing’ after Congress’s approval last week of a debt ceiling deal that averts U.S. default.
The Fed enters its traditional blackout period this week, but there is more data to digest, including the ISM services PMI later Monday, which is expected to point to a still solid rate of expansion.
Elsewhere, EUR/USD fell 0.2% to 1.0692, extending the previous session’s 0.5% slide after a slight pullback in expectations for further tightening by the European Central Bank after last week’s cooler-than-expected eurozone CPI.
ECB President Christine Lagarde pointed towards further interest rate hikes after the CPI release, saying there was still “ground to cover” in the tightening cycle, but other ECB officials have been more dovish with their comments.
Lagarde speaks later Monday at a hearing before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs, and her comments will be carefully studied, as well as the May eurozone producer price figures.
GBP/USD fell 0.4% to 1.2407, ahead of the release of services PMI data for May, which is expected to show that this part of the U.K. economy remains robust.
USD/JPY rose 0.3% to 140.38, with the yen weakened by waning safe haven demand after the passing of the U.S. debt ceiling bill, while AUD/USD fell 0.4% to 0.6591.
The Reserve Bank of Australia meets on Tuesday and is expected to keep rates steady after sharp hikes over the past year. However, there remains a slim chance of a rate hike given that inflation unexpectedly rose in April.
USD/CNY rose 0.5% to 7.1190, close to moving a six-month low, with the focus this week on Chinese trade and inflation data for more cues on Asia’s largest economy.
USD/TRY rose 0.5% to 21.1400, not far from the record 21.8 seen last seen in an uncertain reaction to the appointment of highly regarded Mehmet Şimşek as finance minister.
