Thailand Q2 GDP Beats Forecast, Surpassing Expectations

Thailand Q2 GDP beats forecast in Q2 2025, expanding by 2.8% year-on-year (y/y), above the 2.5% economist projection. Quarter-on-quarter (q/q), GDP grew 0.6%, slightly below Q1’s 0.7%, but still stronger than expected.

The National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC) upgraded its full-year GDP growth forecast from 1.3–2.3% to reflect this robust performance. Analysts attribute the growth primarily to export strength, highlighting Thailand’s ability to navigate global trade challenges and maintain competitiveness.

Export-Led Growth Drives Economic Momentum

Thailand Q2 GDP beats forecast largely due to strong exports in sectors like:

• Electronics and semiconductors

• Automotive components

• Agricultural products

High demand from the U.S., EU, and ASEAN trading partners bolstered Thailand’s external sector. Economic experts note that export diversification, efficient supply chains, and preemptive measures ahead of U.S. tariffs enabled Thailand to maintain strong trade performance.

Exports continue to play a pivotal role in offsetting weaker domestic demand, particularly in tourism, allowing Thailand’s economy to beat expectations in Q2 2025.

Tourism Sector Faces Continued Challenges

Despite Thailand Q2 GDP beating forecast, the tourism sector showed signs of slower recovery. NESDC revised its visitor forecast from 37 million to 33 million tourists in 2025.

Tourism, a major GDP contributor, has been affected by:

• Slower recovery in neighboring markets

• Lingering travel restrictions

• Reduced consumer confidence among international travelers

Analysts suggest that while strong exports offset tourism weaknesses, the sector remains critical to sustaining broader economic growth, especially for service industries like hospitality and retail.

Domestic Consumption and Investment Trends

Domestic demand remained stable, supported by rising household incomes and low inflation pressures. Private investment in infrastructure, manufacturing, and technology sectors added further support to GDP growth.

Government incentives for SMEs and export-oriented businesses boosted confidence, highlighting the combined role of domestic and external factors in helping Thailand Q2 GDP beat forecast.

Policy Implications and Outlook

Thailand Q2 GDP beats forecast, indicating resilience and providing policymakers with room to focus on:

• Supporting tourism recovery

• Encouraging technology and value-added manufacturing

• Maintaining export competitiveness

A balanced strategy targeting both domestic consumption and exports is essential for sustaining medium- and long-term growth. Analysts expect Thailand to leverage its export sector while gradually stabilizing tourism and investment activity throughout 2025.

Conclusion

Thailand Q2 GDP beats forecast with 2.8% y/y growth in Q2 2025, driven primarily by export-led expansion. Despite tourism sector headwinds, robust external demand and stable domestic investment contributed to stronger-than-expected growth. With the NESDC raising its full-year growth outlook, Thailand remains on track for steady economic expansion in 2025.