Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) stands to benefit if U.S. negotiators agree to lift the H20 GPU ban in upcoming China trade talks, Wedbush Securities says, as China race for AI leadership heats up.

During April’s earnings, Nvidia booked a $4.5 billion charge and lost $2.5 billion in H20 revenue after the Trump administration required export licenses for its flagship AI chips to China. Wedbush analysts note that the initial trade framework between Washington and Beijing sets the stage for chip export controls to be loosened next, given that China’s AI capabilities have rapidly closed the gap. They argue that allowing H20 sales into China would curb Huawei’s advantagecurrently the primary beneficiary of Nvidia’s restricted supplyand prevent China from accelerating its own chip designs in isolation. Restoring H20 exports could recapture a sizable chunk of Nvidia’s lost revenue and reinforce U.S. tech’s global influence.

While strategic export controls are intended to protect national security, Wedbush contends that a calibrated rollbackpaired with strict end?use monitoringwould serve both economic and geopolitical goals, preserving U.S. firms’ market share without compromising critical technologies. The analysts believe that forthcoming discussions will prioritize easing H20 restrictions alongside broader semiconductor agreements, including rules on advanced chip manufacturing equipment and software.

Why It Matters: Reinstating H20 GPU exports to China could unlock up to $5 billion in annual Nvidia revenue, recalibrate the global AI hardware divide, and set a precedent for balanced trade controls.