Tesla (TSLA) and BYD (BYDDF) are the world’s largest electric-vehicle makers.

In 2022, China EV and battery giant BYD’s vehicle sales raced ahead of Tesla’s and are now well more than twice as high. For all-battery electric vehicles (BEVs), BYD seized the crown in Q4 2023. Tesla has regained that title, though BYD looks set to lead again in Q4 2024.

Tesla reported a surprise profit gain in Q3, fueled by rebounding margins. Elon Musk was bullish about full-year and 2025 growth as well. BYD reported solid Q3 earnings, with revenue surpassing Tesla for the first time. October and November sales signal a huge fourth quarter.

But for Tesla and perhaps BYD, the biggest news is Donald Trump’s election. Investors are convinced that Trump policies will strongly favor Tesla, with Musk a strong campaign supporter and now co-leading a blue-ribbon government efficiency effort. Meanwhile, Trump has promised massive new China tariffs, hitting an already-struggling Chinese economy.

There is a potential Trump wildcard that could up-end the calculus for both EV giants. Tesla stock skyrocketed after U.S. elections to a two-year high. BYD stock has fallen below a key level.

Tesla delivered 462,890 EVs in Q3, up from Q2’s 433,956 and Q3 2023’s 435,059. That was in line with various analyst estimates but below some whisper numbers. Also, Tesla relied on China sales, which tend to be lower margin.

Tesla also deployed 6.9 gigawatt hours of energy storage products, down from Q2’s record 9.4 GWh.

Meanwhile, BYD sold a record 1,134,892 vehicles in Q3, up 37.3% vs. a year earlier and 7.6% vs. Q2’s 986,720. Plug-in hybrid sales soared 75.6% vs. a year before to 685,830. BEV passenger sales came in at 443,426, up 2.7% vs. a year earlier and 4.1% vs. Q2.

Tesla, which only makes BEVs, remained No. 1 in that category in Q3.

In November, BYD sold a record 506,804 EVs in November, up 67.9% vs. a year earlier. But it was up just 0.8% vs. October and below some estimates.

Out of its 504,003 passenger vehicles, BYD sold 305,938 PHEVs, up 133.1% vs. a year earlier but down 1.6% from October. That snapped an eight-month string of record PHEV sales. BEVs sales came in 198,065, their first record of 2024. They were up 16.4% vs. a year earlier and 4.5% vs. October.

Sales of commercial vehicles, including buses, delivery trucks and more, hit a record 2,801 in November, up 433.5% vs. a year earlier and 31.4% vs. October.

So far in 2024, BYD has sold 3,757,336 vehicles. It’s now passed the official full-year target of 3.6 million EVs in November and should end the year well above the unofficial goal of four million.

BYD Eyes BEV Crown
On the Q3 earnings call, Musk predicted 2024 deliveries would top last year’s total of 1.808 million. That would require record Q4 deliveries of more than 514,925. Right now analysts are predicting around 500,000 in Q4, even with Tesla pushing hard with a vast array of incentives and discounts.

BYD’s sales are likely to keep rising in the typical year-end push. But simply the October-November levels would mean BYD’s BEV sales would total 581,518 in Q4.

In all likelihood, Tesla would regain the title in Q1 2025, with Lunar New Year holidays contributing to a sluggish period for China auto sales. But strong orders and expanding overseas operations suggest BYD won’t suffer nearly as big of a drop-off in Q1 2025 as it did to start 2024.

Tesla, BYD Price Cuts
Tesla has slashed prices worldwide starting in late 2022. The EV giant has had to keep cutting prices or boost other incentives to prop up sales, slashing once-mighty profit margins and earnings.

In late October, Tesla increased Model 3 and Model Y inventory discounts in the U.S. and announced 0% financing for those EVs. In recent weeks, Tesla has announced free Supercharging and FSD incentives, higher referral bonuses and end-of-lease buyouts in the U.S. In Europe, Model 3 and Y incentives have grown. It also recently announced an end-of-year Model Y price discount.

Earlier in 2024, BYD slashed prices on most of its largely refreshed models, helping to revive sales, but since then has largely eschewed discounts.

Tesla Models
Tesla produces the Model 3, the Model Y, Model X and Model S, as well as the Semi and Cybertruck. The Model Y crossover accounts for the majority of sales.

A Model 3 revamp didn’t provide much of a sales boost in China and Europe and has been lackluster in the U.S.

Cybertruck production has picked up. It’s likely to be largely a North American vehicle.

Tesla is now selling non-Foundation versions of the Cybertruck in the U.S., reducing the starting price by $20,000, to $79,990. At that price, the Cybertruck should soon be eligible for IRA tax credits. But that still hasn’t happened.

Anyone can order a Cybertruck with near-term delivery. Tesla is now trying to generate Cybertruck sales in Canada and a few other countries.

All that suggests that the estimated 2 million reservations didn’t translate into many sales.

Along with other efforts, Tesla’s Cybertruck moves reflect a hard push for year-end sales.

Tesla has delivered a few dozen Semi vehicles to PepsiCo (PEP). By May 2024, a few more customers, including Walmart (WMT), had taken possession of at least one Tesla Semi. But it’s still unclear what the specs and price for the EV big rig are. Tesla recently said it expected mass production in 2026, but Semi timelines have often slipped by years.

Tesla Model Y Refresh, ‘Affordable’ EV
Recent online chatter suggested that Tesla Shanghai was starting low-level production of the long-awaited updated “Juniper” Model Y. That might indicate actual deliveries in China by early 2025. It’s unclear when Tesla’s Berlin and Austin plants might begin output.

Like the Model S, X and 3 updates — which didn’t boost sales much — the “Juniper” Model Y likely will have cosmetic exterior changes. Even a small but noticeable exterior change could help.

The EV giant this year ditched long-touted plans for a “next-generation” EV and “revolutionary” manufacturing. Tesla now plans “affordable vehicles,” using existing production lines.

In the Q3 earnings report, Tesla said it still sees output of the “affordable” vehicle starting in the first half of 2025. That would suggest mass production and deliveries would start in late 2025 or beyond.

Musk, on the Q3 call, said the new EV should be sub-$30,000 after incentives. If that means the $7,500 IRA tax credit, the list price would be below $37,500, but perhaps not by much.

Tesla still hasn’t even shown images for the upcoming “affordable” vehicle.

The speculation is that Tesla will produce a lower-cost variant of the Model 3 or Model Y, perhaps a hatchback. It’s unclear how a low-end EV might fare in various markets, especially in China, without IRA credits.

BYD Expansion
BYD sells BEVs and PHEVs from around $10,000 to $150,000, with a wide range of models. It’s refreshing much of its lineup, while adding several new models. That includes new models for its premium Denza, FangChengBao and Yangwang brands.

BYD recently took full control of Denza, buying the last 10% owned by Mercedes-Benz.

A recently launched fifth-generation hybrid system offers touted 2,100 kilometers (1,305 miles) in combined battery-and-gas range. The system, which is being rolled out to new and existing models, is fueling booming orders.

Improved driver-assist systems and faster charging also are expanding to more of BYD’s lineup.

Overseas sales have declined as a share of total sales in recent months, but BYD has big plans.

Export logistics have improved, in terms of ships and rail.

BYD’s brand-new Thailand plant, its first full-assembly plant outside of China, has begun deliveries. There’s also a knock-down plant in Uzbekistan, which puts together partially assembled vehicles.

A Brazil factory is due to fully open in early 2025. The EV giant also has intents to build factories in Hungary, Indonesia, Turkey, Cambodia and Pakistan.

Turkey has a customs union with the EU. That, along with the Hungary plant, will be two factories for Europe. The Cambodia and Pakistan plants will likely be knock-down plants.

The EV giant also is close to choosing a Mexico site and may set up in Vietnam as well. BYD may be waiting on Trump developments before selecting a Mexico site.

BYD makes EV buses in California, but says it has no plans to enter the U.S. passenger EV market, amid import tariffs and political opposition. However, Trump has said he wants Chinese EV makers to build cars in the U.S.

Tesla Vs. BYD Batteries
Tesla traditionally has not mass produced its own batteries. For lithium-ion batteries, its joint venture partner Panasonic makes the cells and Tesla packages them. It also buys lithium-ion batteries from South Korea’s LG. Tesla also buys a lot of lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries from China’s CATL as well as some LFP batteries from BYD.

Tesla is working on 4680 batteries, first touted at the 2020 Battery Day. The 4680 batteries are standard lithium-ion chemistry, but the EV giant claimed the larger form factor offers the potential for various benefits and cost savings. Tesla’s 4680 production has picked up in recent months.

Tesla has hinted at progress on the “dry cathode” problem, but reportedly mass-production issues remain. It appears that the 4680 battery density is only now reaching that of traditional 2170 cells. Tesla does get some IRA tax credits from making its own batteries.

Tesla is a major battery storage provider, though it gets its batteries from CATL.