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Logitech upgraded as Morgan Stanley’s sell thesis has run its course

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Logitech (NASDAQ:LOGI) was lifted to Equal-Weight from Underweight, with the price target raised to $56 from $40 by Morgan Stanley analysts on Monday, helping to boost the company’s share price.

LOGI shares are currently up more than 2% on the day at over $60 per share, adding to Friday’s more than 3% gain.

They told investors in a note that the firm’s underweight thesis, which had two key pillars, has run its course.

“We see a more balanced catalyst path over the next 6-9 months,” the analysts wrote. “We downgraded LOGI to Underweight in September 2021 as COVID-related demand tailwinds faded. Over the last 18 months, LOGI’s stock has underperformed the S&P by over 30 points, as the company went through a multi-quarter period of revenue declines, margin compression, and negative earnings revisions.”

They acknowledged that risks to the company’s forward outlook “clearly still exist,” with a more uncertain macro backdrop that is “likely to continue pressuring consumer and enterprise spending on technology goods.”

However, they noted that although the F1H24 revenue guidance issued at Logitech’s March 7th Analyst Day implies worse F2H to F1H seasonality than anything pre-Covid, they now believe the risks are already well-known and baked into Street estimates.

“Furthermore, with channel inventories now back to in-line with pre-COVID averages at March quarter-end (per our proprietary US channel inventory tracker), the two key drivers of our prior Underweight thesis have now largely played out,” they concluded.

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